Military vehicles drive during the Union Courage 2022 joint military exercise of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, at the Brestsky training ground in Brest Region, Belarus, February 11. Russian Defence Ministry/via REUTERS
Global Politics/New York Times: Putin Has Choice of Blitzkrieg or Minor Incursion in Ukraine
MUNICH — When President Biden declared on Friday he was convinced President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had decided to attack Ukraine “in the coming week, in the coming days,” the skeptics among American allies suddenly fell quiet. Hours before, Mr. Biden had informed them that American intelligence agencies had just learned that the Kremlin had given the order for Russian military units to proceed with an invasion.
Now the debate has shifted to how Mr. Putin will do it: in one massive nationwide attack; a series of bites that dismantle the country, piece by piece; or a cobra-like squeeze. That last option is made all the easier with the news Sunday morning that Belarus is allowing Russian troops to remain indefinitely, where they can menace Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
Mr. Putin might be betting that he can shatter Ukraine’s economy and oust its government without having to immediately roll in tanks.
Mr. Putin’s strategic choices over the next few weeks may make a huge difference in how the world reacts.
If he strikes to take the whole country in a single blow — the approach that senior American military and intelligence officials and many outside analysts now think is the most likely — it could trigger the largest, most violent battle for European territory since the Nazi surrender in 1945.
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WNU Editor: According to this report 50% of Russia's ground combat units are near the Ukraine border .... UK intelligence says Russia has 50% of its ground combat units on Ukraine's border (Insider).
With that type of fire-power I cannot help but think that it will be a major assault, with the objective being a quick seizure of Kyiv.
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