What Will Be Success For Ukraine In Their Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian Leopard 2 tank and several Bradley fighting vehicles destroyed by the Russian forces in Russia’s Zaporozhye Region. © Telegram / Russia's Defense Ministry 

DNYUZ/New York Times: As Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive, Definitions of ‘Success’ Vary 

After months of anticipation, Ukraine’s forces — newly trained on complex warfare tactics and armed with billions of dollars in sophisticated Western weaponry — launched operations on multiple fronts in the past week in an effort to dislodge entrenched Russian military units, a counteroffensive that many officials in the United States and Europe say could be a turning point in the 15-month war. 

Much rides on the outcome. There is little doubt the new military drive will influence discussions of future support for Ukraine as well as debates about how to guarantee its future. What remains unclear, though, is exactly what the United States, Europe and Ukraine view as a “successful” counteroffensive.  

Read more ....  

Update: NYT outlines what Ukrainian counteroffensive 'success' means in the West (RT)  

WNU Editor: Before the launch of the counteroffensive early this week the expectation in Kyiv among my friends and contacts was that once Ukraine had launched their counteroffensive, Russian forces would do what they did in Kherson and Kharkiv last year. Withdraw their forces to safer and more defensible lines. In short .... their definition of success was Russian forces giving up the territory that they control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including giving up the land bridge to Crimea. 

Among the Ukraine government, their public definition of success was even more ambitious. The expectation was that by summer (i.e. a month from now) Ukraine forces would be in Crimea fighting Russian forces. 

After a week of heavy fighting .... these expectations have evaporated. 

After one week of heavy fighting that has claimed thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and the loss of countless tanks, armored vehicles, and other military vehicles, this is what Ukraine has to show for it's efforts .... Ukraine Retakes Villages in 'First Results' of Counterattack - Kyiv (Reuters). Capturing 3 small villages and advancing one kilometer in a few places after one week of fighting is not how I would define success. 

A prediction. 

If Ukraine does make sizeable gains in the coming 10 days so that they can show NATO before their Vilnius summit that they can succeed militarily against Russian forces, NATO's military leaders will publicly applaud Ukraine's efforts and call it a success, but privately say this was a failure (or worse).

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