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Will Ukraine Launch A Spring Counteroffensive?

Ukrainian servicemen attend an exercise, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, May 15. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich  

WNU Editor: There has recently been a lot of specualtion on why Ukraine has not launched its much publicized spring offensive. Here are some reasons why .... Why Ukraine’s spring offensive still hasn’t begun — with summer just weeks away (AP). 

It is true that the weather has not been favourable. It is also true that about 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers are only completing their training now, and that ammo and weapons have been slow to arrive. 

But I think a lot of important points have been ignored by the West, and my list and explanations are below. 

1) The battle of Bakhmut. A lot was riding on the battle of Bakhmut, and the belief was that if Kyiv kept on deploying soldiers and material to the battle, the Russian forces would be repulsed. That did not happen, and because it did not happen a lot of time, manpower, and equipment was lost. 

And now with this defeat, the Ukraine military will need to reassess the battlefield conditions. Establish new fortifications, and more importantly, deploy fresh units to new front lines, units that would have been used in the counteroffensive. 

Bottom line. A lot of time is going go to be lost. 

 2) In the past 10 days Russia has conducted multiple missile and drone attacks against critical and strategic Ukrainian ammo dumps. Some of them have been spectacular, with the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in ordinance and ammunition .... Massive Explosion Rocks Western Ukraine After Ammunition Storage Site Attacked (May 15, 2023). 

You cannot launch an offensive if you do not have the ordinance to back you up. 

3) Not enough experienced and trained men to launch a counteroffensive. Russia currently has about 200,000 soldiers on the front-lines, with another 300,000 in reserve in Ukraine. There is also a minimum of 300,000 soldiers in Russia on the border of Ukraine that are ready to be deployed. You cannot launch a counteroffensive against a minimum of 500,000 Russian soldiers who are behind heavy fortifications and who command the air when you only have anywhere from 50,000 to 80,000 soldiers that can be used in the offensive. It would be suicide for the soldiers involved. 

4) Russia is ready for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Here is some somber reading on how prepared Russia is for this Ukraine offensive .... Russia’s military has adapted and is now a more formidable enemy for Ukraine, defense analysts say (CNBC). More here .... Russia Adapted Arms and Tactics Ahead of Ukraine Offensive (Bloomberg). I am sure Ukraine's top generals know this, and want a revaluation on what they can realistically do.



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